Search results for "European Monetary System"
showing 4 items of 4 documents
Efficient Diversification of International Investments: The Spanish Point of View
1999
The search for the best investments in a return-risk framework has led the investors to the portfolio diversification. The domestic markets liberalisation and a increasingly financial market integration, have made the investors to exceed the national barriers in order to get the international diversification of their portfolios.
The P* model and its performance for the Spanish economy
2000
The performance of the P∗ model is tested as an inflation forecaster for the Spanish economy. It is shown that log-run relationships work as expected according to the model and the Quantitative Theory of Money. The Error Correction Model constructed by using the gap between actual prices and the long-term equilibrium price level as an error correction term, offers a consistent explanation for the short-run dynamics in prices. On the other hand, the P∗ approach shows a forecasting ability similar to that presented for other countries in several studies, although the degree of accuracy in the prediction is not specially satisfactory, mainly for the period 1989:3- 1992:3, when the credibility …
Evaluating currency crises: the case of the European monetary system
2007
In this paper we examine the nature of currency crises. We ascertain whether the currency crises of the European Monetary System (EMS) were based either on fundamentals, or on self-fulfilling market expectations driven by extrinsic uncertainty. In particular, we extend previous work of Jeanne and Masson (J Int Econ 50:327–350, 2000) regarding the evaluation of currency crisis. We contribute to the existing literature proposing the use of Markov regime-switching with time-varying transition probability model. Our empirical results suggest that the currency crises of the EMS were not due only to market expectations driven by external uncertainty, or ‘sunspots’, but also to fundamental variabl…
Cointegration and the PPP and the UIP hypotheses: An application to the Spanish integration in the EC
1996
The aim of this paper is to find some empirical evidence on Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) and Uncovered Interest Parity (UIP) in the Spanish case vis a vis the European Community for the period 1980–89. The main contribution of the paper is the aggregation of the variables corresponding to the countries that participate in the exchange rate mechanism of the European Monetary System. The results support the importance of the interest differential as an explanatory variable for the short-term adjustment to the PPP. The results follow from powerful estimation techniques, applied in the framework of a multivariate error-correction model using the maximum-likelihood procedure as developed by Joh…